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非农引领金价破高,2023黄金成抢手货? 

Vantage 更新 Updated Fri, 2023 January 13 06:02

上周五,备受瞩目的美国12月非农指标公布。最终非农就业人数实际增加22.3万人,失业率降至3.5%。虽然两大数据都好于预期,但并没有带动美元强劲反弹。根本原因是,一方面因为前一天的“小非农”表现亮眼,美元已经提前上涨;另一方面,美国12月平均时薪率为4.6%,明显低于市场预期。因为薪资增长放缓,市场对通胀放缓的预期增强。美联储2月加息幅度收窄是大概率事件,是拖累美元的重要因素。另一个爆发点是,12月美国ISM非制造业PMI为49.6,不仅低于预期,还创下2020年5月以来的新低,促成了黄金等非美大涨。 

虽然黄金相对于欧元等其他货币走势平淡,但得益于过去三个月美元的下跌,美金表现抢眼。如果美联储今年的加息速度确实放缓,那么美元在波段水平的跌势有望延续。黄金升破前高的可能性将进一步增强。此外,2022年以来,全球主要央行均不同程度增持黄金,黄金再次成为市场的抢手货。 

就中国而言,1月7日,国家外汇管理局公布的最新数据显示,截至2022年12月底,中国外汇储备为31277亿美元,比去年11月底增加102亿美元。其中,外汇储备中的黄金储备已经连续两个月增加。根据世界黄金协会披露的数据,2022年前10个月,全球央行购买了704吨黄金,其中,第三季度,全球央行购买了约399吨黄金,创下了2000年以来全球央行最大的单季黄金购买纪录。主要原因是越来越多的国家担心过度依赖美元的风险,开始加快外汇储备资产多元化的步伐。去年美联储大幅加息导致美元飙升,导致许多国家外汇储备中的非美货币资产折算成美元的金额大幅下降,导致外汇储备估值大幅下降,本国货币大幅贬值。 

结合以上两个因素,如果美联储在今年6月之前加息幅度都不超过50个基点,那么以美元计价的黄金很可能在今年突破波段区间。从周线图来看,黄金目前已经守住了1600关口。如果后市能够站稳1900,那么突破2075平台的压力可能不再是遥不可及的梦想。 

2023年01月13日 许曦扬

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