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美联储新年气象几何,鸽派色彩或更浓烈

Vantage 更新 Updated Thu, 2023 February 9 06:54

北京时间2月2日凌晨,美联储上演了2023年决议首秀。在决议前沉默一周后,美联储官员本周开始再次活跃在市场上。除了美联储主席鲍威尔,美联储副主席布雷纳德,纽约州联储主席威廉姆斯,美联储理事库克,2023票委、明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利,美联储理事沃勒等官员将陆续发言。2023年美联储的阵营会比去年有明显变化吗?

首先,美联储作为美国的中央银行,主要由叁部分组成:联邦储备委员会,联邦储备银行和联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)。其中,联邦储备委员会是美联储的管理机构,由7名成员组成。在美联储的叁大货币政策工具中,联邦储备委员会负责贴现率和存款准备金, FOMC负责公开市场操作,即每次会议是否加息都将由FOMC投票决定。FOMC由12名成员组成,包括7名联邦储备委员会成员、纽约联邦储备银行行长和4名联储行长。其中,4位联储主席由其余11位联储行长轮流担任,11位联储行长分为4组,每组各有一位轮流任职一年。

显然,美联储的关键人物是美联储董事会的7名成员和纽约联储行长。其中,布雷纳德目前是美联储“二把手”。作为美联储中相对温和鸽派的成员,她的立场自2022年以来没有太大变化。2022年11月,布雷纳德表示:“短时间内放缓加息速度是合适的。但我认为真正需要强调的是,美联储已经做了很多工作,但还有更多事情要做。”同样,今年1月20日,她表示,有必要在一段时间内维持足够的限制性政策,将通胀降至2%需要时间和决心;近期放缓加息步伐,可以让美联储评估更多数据。布雷纳德演讲结束后,道琼斯指数也在短时间内两度上涨,可见她演讲的影响力。

美国联邦公开市场委员会组成结构

2023年,除了委员会成员和一成不变的纽约联储行长威廉姆斯之外,2022年的投票委员由圣路易斯联储行长布拉德、波士顿联储行长柯林斯、堪萨斯城联储行长乔治和克利夫兰联储行长梅斯特组成,今年这四位由芝加哥联储行长古尔斯比、费城联储行长哈克、达拉斯联储行长洛根和明尼阿波利斯联储行长卡什卡利取代。

具体来说,被替换的2022投票委员是四个鹰派,其中布拉德是极端鹰派的代表,乔治大多数时候是鹰派,梅斯特一直是鹰派,柯林斯最近的发言也是鹰派。在新的2023投票委员中,只有卡什卡利和洛根是鹰派。虽然卡什卡利在2021年是最鸽派的代表,但他在2022年的讲话却有强烈的鹰派色彩。洛根作为新行长,立场鹰派,与鲍威尔观点相近。哈克关于过度紧缩的警告被认为是鸽派。芝加哥美联储的新行长古尔斯比最近发言显得较为中立,但根据古尔斯比此前认为高通胀在一定程度上是由供应限制推动的倾向,他上台后持强鹰派态度的可能性较小。所以相对于2022年的投票委员会,只有布雷纳德一个明显的鸽派,而2023年明显的鸽派可能达到2-3个,分别是布雷纳德、哈克,可能还有古尔斯比。

另有消息称,美国总统拜登有意重组其经济顾问团队,布雷纳德可能出任国家经济委员会(NEC)主任。布雷纳德在美联储的任期将于2026年1月31日结束。如果她在本次加息周期内离职,将会有其他人被选为美联储副主席,美联储政策的不确定性将再次增加。

美国联邦公开市场委员会货币政策倾向匯总

2023年02月09日 许曦扬

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