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2023年01月25日市场分析

Vantage 更新 Updated Wed, 2023 January 25 08:22

黄金外汇日评:周二美元持续于低位震荡,非美走势分化。虽然美国1月企业活动萎缩,但制造业和服务业的下滑趋势自9月份以来首次有所缓和,而且随着新一年的开始,企业信心也有所增强。联邦基金利率期货市场预计,美联储只会再加息两次,每次25个基点,到6月达到5%左右的峰值,然后从今年晚些时候开始降息。美联储自己坚称还会再加息75个基点。欧元区企业活动1月出人意料地恢复了温和增长,德国的服务业活动自6月份以来首次出现增长,尽管价格压力仍然很高。更强劲的经济有可能使欧洲央行更激进地加息以应对通胀。美元因此大幅受挫,欧元获得提振。今日可重点关注加央行决议,此次市场预期将加息25个基点,如后续加息预期继续放缓,加元存在回落的可能。

美元收十字阴线,5日,10日均线下搭呈空头排列,且死叉未有明显修复迹象,日线RSI进一步回落,总体趋势偏空,后市有望延续震荡,建议关注101-103区间。

黄金持续破高,仍立于5日均线上方,5日,10日均线乖离率上升,日线RSI到达超买区,1925-1930为下方较强支撑带,后市有望延续上行并测试1940,1955。

原油拐头下行,回踩10日均线,短期均线金叉缩小,日线RSI回落至50附近,83关口面临强压,多头动能减弱,后市有望延续震荡,建议关注76-83区间。

欧美小幅走高,受5日均线依托,5日,10日均线仍呈金叉,日线RSI行至高位,1.0860一线存在强劲支撑,后市有望延续上行并测试1.0930,1.0960。

镑美收小阴线,刺破10日均线,1.2440成为上方强压,日线有望呈双顶,RSI拐头下行,后市有望延续下行并测试1.23,1.2250。

澳美小幅回升,今日突破前高,升破关键压力0.7060,彻底站上上行趋势线,日线处于震荡上行格局,日线RSI靠近超买区,后市有望延续上行并测试0.71,0.7140。

美日小幅阴跌,未能成功升破131关口压力,5日,10日均线呈金叉,日线RSI位于50下方,后市有望延续震荡,建议关注127-131区间。

白银拐头上行,仍承压于5日,10日均线,且均线交错粘合,日线RSI徘徊于50附近,后市有望延续震荡,建议关注23-24.5区间。

A50继续沿5日均线小幅反弹,14000关口仍为下方关键支撑,5日,10日均线上扬呈多头排列,日线RSI到达超买区,后市有望延续上行并测试14500。

2023年01年25日 许曦扬

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